Reducing Food Waste by Predicting Product Shelf Life

Martin Wiedmann, Ph.D.
PI:Martin Wiedmann
Cornell University

Year Awarded  2019

FFAR award amount   $590,000

Total award amount   $1,560,000

Location   Ithaca, NY

Matching Funders   Cornell University, Chobani, New York State Dairy Promotion Order

  • Food Systems

Researchers developed a model that accurately predicts dairy products’ shelf life to reduce food waste and loss for consumers and producers.

Food Waste Challenges

About 40% of food in the United States is wasted, often because consumers base their decision to dispose of food on the “best-by” label, which are determined by manufacturers based on food quality rather than safety. Without a way to predict shelf-life, food waste and loss is becoming increasingly common, with milk spoilage alone costing the U.S. $6.4 billion annually.

Digital Tools to Reduce Food Waste

Dairy producers and consumers needed a more effective system than “best-by” labels to predict shelf life of dairy products based on their quality and avoid wasting food that is still safe to eat. Using fluid milk as an example, researchers took a systems approach by exploring interventions at each step in the dairy farm-to-fork continuum. The researchers ultimately generated five predictive models that the dairy industry can use.

Researchers then developed a user-friendly interface for two models and made them publicly available so different dairy stakeholders, like consumers and retailers, can evaluate the shelf-life of a product.

As part of the project, researchers conducted three studies that showed consumers are willing to pay a price premium of $0.08 per day of extra shelf-life and an additional $1.13 if made aware of potential food waste reduction through appropriate messaging. A final online survey revealed that reduced shelf life is associated with poor shopping experience, which can lead to retailers losing consumer loyalty.

Other Applications

The research highlighted the importance of digital solutions, consumer incentives and effective messaging in mitigating food waste and loss. The project also developed predictive models of food spoilage that can be used beyond the dairy industry to improve sustainability in the broader food system, prevent disposal of foods still safe to consume and enhance the consumer shopping experience.

The modelling component is currently being used in Cornell Cooperative Extension and is moving towards end users. Researchers are exploring commercialization.

Martin Wiedmann, Ph.D.

This project represented an exciting application of digital agriculture tools to reduce food waste and further improve the sustainability of our food supply.

Martin Wiedmann, Ph.D.
Professor of Food Science at Cornell University

Scientific Publications

  1. Trmčić, A., Evanowski, R. L., Sunil, S., Wiedmann, M., & Martin, N. H. (2025). Raw milk from individual teats with an optimal teat-end score has lower spore levels compared with teats with a suboptimal teat-end score. JDS Communications, 6(6), 733. https://doi.org/10.3168/jdsc.2025-0802
  2. Lau, S., Wiedmann, M., & Adalja, A. (2025). The effects of poor fluid milk experience on store choice and customer loyalty in online and in-store retail channels. JDS Communications, 6(1), 7-12. https://doi.org/10.3168/jdsc.2024-0615
  3. Rudlong, A. M., Pillai, K. V., & Goddard, J. M. (2023). Synthesis of polymerizable quaternary ammonium bromides and their efficacy against pathogenic and food spoilage bacteria. Food and Humanity, 1, 873-879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foohum.2023.07.023
  4. Endara, P., Wiedmann, M., & Adalja, A. (2023). Consumer willingness to pay for shelf life of high-temperature, short-time-pasteurized fluid milk: Implications for smart labeling and food waste reduction. Journal of Dairy Science, 106(9), 5940-5957. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-22968
  5. Evanowski, R. L., Murphy, S. I., Wiedmann, M., & Martin, N. H. (2023). Low-cost, on-farm intervention to reduce spores in bulk tank raw milk benefits producers, processors, and consumers. Journal of Dairy Science, 106(3), 1687-1694. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-22372
  6. Lau, S., Wiedmann, M., & Adalja, A. (2023). Economic and environmental analysis of processing plant interventions to reduce fluid milk waste. Journal of Dairy Science, 106(7), 4773-4784. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-23019
  7. Qian, C., Murphy, S., Lott, T., Martin, N., & Wiedmann, M. (2023). Development and deployment of a supply-chain digital tool to predict fluid-milk spoilage due to psychrotolerant sporeformers. Journal of Dairy Science, 106(12), 8415-8433. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2023-23673
  8. Lau, S., Trmcic, A., Martin, N., Wiedmann, M., & Murphy, S. (2022). Development of a Monte Carlo simulation model to predict pasteurized fluid milk spoilage due to post-pasteurization contamination with gram-negative bacteria. Journal of Dairy Science, 105(3), 1978-1998. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2021-21316
  9. Griep-Moyer, E., Trmčić, A., Qian, C., & Moraru, C. (2022). Monte Carlo simulation model predicts bactofugation can extend shelf-life of pasteurized fluid milk, even when raw milk with low spore counts is used as the incoming ingredient. Journal of Dairy Science, 105(12), 9439-9449. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-22174
  10. Lau, S., Wiedmann, M., & Adalja, A. (2022). Consumer perceptions of QR code technology for enhanced fluid milk shelf-life information provision in a retail setting. JDS Communications, 3(6), 393-397. https://doi.org/10.3168/jdsc.2022-0256
  11. Rudlong, A. M., Koga, Y. T., & Goddard, J. M. (2022). Advances in nonfouling and antimicrobial coatings: Perspectives for the food industry. ACS Food Science & Technology, 2(9), 1401–1416. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsfoodscitech.2c00148
  12. Enayaty-Ahangar, F., Murphy, S. I., Martin, N. H., Wiedmann, M., & Ivanek, R. (2021). Optimizing Pasteurized Fluid Milk Shelf-Life Through Microbial Spoilage Reduction. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 670029. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.670029
ID: CA18-SS-0000000206